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Thought of the month ...

November 2011: Controlling overpopulation: In my presentations on natural disasters, sustainability, etc. I have often mentioned that humans cause the largest natural disasters through wars. Today's New York Times Data Point shows how correct my statement was: “Population Control, Marauder Style” by Bill Marsh presents the number of death and the percentage of humanity killed in human atrocities. Based on material published in the book “The Great Big Book of Horrible Things” by Matthew White, he points out that the deadliest events “are more plentiful in recent centuries, given that there were more people to kill and better ways to kill them on a grand scale.” In percentage of all humanity, it may be that the size of the events are probably declining, showing that the marauder style of population control no longer keeps up with the growth. Which means, either mother Earth or we ourselves need to take control and keep the numbers at a reasonable and sustainable level (see also my October 2011 thought of the month on the fact that we celebrate overpopulation instead of serious controlling it).

The two events largest in the absolute death toll are Genghis Khan and the Second World War. From 1206-27, Genghis Khan caused the death of 1.8 million per year, reaching a total of 40 million at the end. At that time, he had caused the death of 11.7% of all humans living at that time on Earth. The second world war from 1939-45 slaughtered 9.4 million per year and reached a total death toll of 66 million at the end. Around the time of the Second World War, this amounted to 2.6% of humanity.

Interestingly, among the natural disasters, only the biggest floods and droughts would have made it into the list of the top 100: The Huang He 1931 flood killed between 800,000 and 4,000,000, and droughts and famines repeatedly killed millions in different parts of the world, often intensified by institutional oppression. Extreme geohazards, which are much feared and receive a lot of scientific attention (see, for example, the conference on Extreme Geohazards), have been a minor contribution: even the biggest events in the history of humanity, including the extreme volcano eruption in Santorini about 3600 years ago, the 2004 Sumatra Tsunami, and the 2010 earthquake in Haiti would not have made the top 100 of human atrocities. This may change in the future because we have extended our cities into extremely hazardous areas, and geohazards now have the potential to reach the million death mark in single events. However, epidemics are the only events competing with the top human atrocities: The 1918 Spanish flue killed an estimated 50,000,000 and thus is in the league of the Second World War and Genghis Khan. Future epidemics in a totally interconnected world may turn out to be the most efficient population control mechanism.


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